The 2026 Incentive Travel Index vs. the data: where buyers and the numbers agree — and where they split

The Incentive Research Foundation and the SITE Foundation published the 2026 Incentive Travel Index this week — 2,017 respondents across 83 countries, fielded with Oxford Economics from May to July. It's the best survey of buyer intent this industry has. We run the other kind of measurement: a live Destination Index built on airfare, air access, government safety ratings, infrastructure and demand signals, re-ranked every day. Put the two side by side and they agree more than they disagree. Where they split is the interesting part.

Source for every survey figure below: IRF & SITE Foundation, 2026 Incentive Travel Index. Our figures come from the IncentiveTrips Destination Index as of October 21, 2026.

The headline numbers

• $5,500 per person is the global average program spend in 2026, up 7.8% from $5,100. North American buyers average $6,100.
• Hotel (25.1%) and airfare (21.4%) are nearly half of the average program budget.
• 60.5% of buyers say geopolitical instability is already disrupting destinations they use; 63.5% removed a destination from a shortlist in the past year.
• Top-tier accommodations became the #1 destination must-have at 47.9%, up from 34.3% — overtaking direct air access (39.5%).
• 30.7% of buyers plan to trim per-person budgets in 2027. Two years out, more expect to improve programs (32.1%) than cut them (19.0%).

Where the survey and the data agree

Europe is pulling demand — and getting more expensive

The survey puts Western Europe at +29.3% net momentum (buyers planning more use minus those planning less) and Emerging Europe at +25.3%, the two strongest regions of 2026. Our Index agrees: 8 of the current top 25 are European — Lisbon (#6), Athens (#14), Barcelona (#16), Vienna (#18), Madrid (#20), Prague (#22), Porto (#24) and Budapest (#25). The cost side is moving with it. Our modeled round-trip fare to Lisbon from the US is $746, up 15% from $650 three months ago.

The Gulf is losing ground on every input

The survey's weakest regions are Other Middle East (−25.6%) and the Gulf States (−23.6%). Our inputs point the same way, and not because of sentiment alone. Dubai's modeled fare from the US is $1,362, up 36% from $1,000 in July. Search interest in Dubai is down about a third over the same period, and it carries a level-3 government advisory. Dubai now sits at #35, Doha at #52, Abu Dhabi at #53 and Muscat at #85. When price, access risk and demand all move the same direction as stated intent, that's not a headline effect.

Safety ratings are the shared yardstick

71.8% of buyers assess destination risk through government ratings — the most-used method in the survey, ahead of previous experience (61.1%). That's the same source our safety pillar uses, which is why the two measurements can be compared at all.

Where they split: Mexico

Mexico swung to −6.5% net momentum in the survey, after being one of the top gainers in 2025. On our Index, Riviera Maya & Cancún is #1 and has been #1 or #2 for the last three months. Mexico City is #9.

Both can be true. A few reasons the gap is real and not a contradiction:

• The survey measures intent among buyers already using Mexico. A region that was last year's top gainer starts from a high base, and the survey also shows buyers chasing novelty: 77.0% plan to increase use of destinations they've never used before. Programs rotate.
• The fundamentals haven't moved much. 63.5% of qualifiers in the survey originate in the US. From there, Riviera Maya still has the best mix of lift, price and hotel depth in the Index: a $456 modeled fare and some of the highest air-access scores we track. Fares are up about 20% since July, but from a low base.
• Sentiment isn't in our model. Our demand input is consumer search interest, not planner intent. The survey captures something we don't, and we'd rather show it next to the score than pretend the score already includes it.

The practical read for a planner: if fewer of your peers are booking Mexico in 2027 while the destination's fundamentals hold, that's a negotiating position on top-tier inventory, not a warning sign. Watch the advisory level — it's the input that would change this picture.

What the survey says about how planners decide

Two findings matter for anyone selling to this market. First, the most trusted information sources are human: peers at industry associations are rated very effective by 62.2% of buyers, and educational site visits by 79.6%. Industry publications and advertising sit at 18.5%. Second, AI summaries are rated very effective by just 8.7% — even though 76.6% of buyers now use AI for destination research. Planners use AI to gather information and people to trust it.

That's the case for publishing the method, not just the ranking. Every pillar, weight and source behind our Index is public, and every profile carries its own ranking history, so you can check the work rather than take it on faith.

What we're changing

Starting this week, every destination page on IncentiveTrips shows the ITI 2026 planner-sentiment figure for its region beside our score — clearly labelled as survey intent, not part of the ranking. Cost pages now show the ITI per-person benchmark next to our modeled cost. The survey and the data are better read together.